NIFTY-5,367
CRUDE OIL-Rs3, 628/ barrel
GOLD-Rs17, 750/10 gram
Rs/$-Rs 46.46
MARKET ROUND UP:
30 Share Sensex dropped 263 or 1.45% to close at 17, 868 during 30th July, 2010. The broad based Nifty lost 81.50 or 1.5% to close at 5,367 during the same period.
Mid-cap stocks declined 25.23 points, or 0.34%, to 7,407.91 in the week. While small-cap shares dipped by 90.35 points, or 0.96%, to 9,348.97 during the week.
Indian market opened the last week on weaker not dragged by the automobile stocks. Market also was jittery ahead of RBI monetary policy review.
On Tuesday RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points and reverse repo by 50 basis points. Index bounced back as it was on line with market expectation led by banking sectors.
Wednesday market ended lower pulled by RIL, L&T and HUL as profit booking emerged after the better than expected result.
Inflation:
Food inflation fell to single digit at 9.67% for the first time this year at a time when the government is facing a concerted Opposition attack on rising food and fuel prices. Inflation fell by 2.80% points for the week ended 17th July from 12.47% in the previous week, as prices of vegetables, especially potatoes and onions, declined.
MAJOR SECTORAL GAINERS:
AUTO | 0.13% |
BANKEX | 0.42% |
CONSUMER DURABLE | 0.46% |
FMCG | 0.42% |
PSU | 0.53% |
IT | 0.03% |
MAJOR SECTORAL LOSERS:
CAPITAL GOODS | -4.82% |
HEALTH CARE | -0.57% |
METAL | -0.75% |
OIL&GAS | -3.49% |
POWER | -1.81% |
REALTY | -3.23% |
MAJOR GAINERS IN NIFTY:
M&M | 5.40% |
HCL Tech | 5.20% |
HDFC Bank | 4.30% |
MAJOR LOSERS IN NIFTY:
Maruti | -11.80% |
JP Associates | -8.20% |
L&T | -7.40% |
TREND IN THE INDICES:
| NIFTY | | | SENSEX | |
| VALUE | % CHANGE | | VALUE | % CHANGE |
1 WEEK | 5285 | -1.50% | | 17608 | -1.45% |
1 MONTH | 5312 | 1.03% | | 17700 | 1% |
3 MONTHS | 5278 | 1.70% | | 17558 | 1.75% |
6 MONTHS | 5225 | 2.70% | | 16163 | 10% |
1 YEAR | 4711 | 14% | | 15831 | 12% |
TREND IN GLOBAL MARKET DURING THE WEEK:
DJIA | 1.40% |
NASDAQ | 0.26% |
S&P500 | 0.72% |
NYSE COMPOSITE | 1.34% |
FTSE100 | 0.01% |
CAC 40 | 1.43% |
NIKKEI 225 | 1.13% |
HANG SENG | 1.03% |
SSE COMPOSITE | 2.55% |
BSE SENSEX | -1.45% |
Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spending
Tuesday
Motor Vehicle Sales
Personal Income and Outlays
Factory Orders
Pending Home Sales
Wednesday
ADP Employment
Thursday
Jobless Claim
Friday
Employment Situation
Consumer Credit
FII TREND DURING THE WEEK:
(Figures in Crore)
26/08/2010 | 845.3 |
27/08/2010 | 472.5 |
28/08/2010 | 81.5 |
29/08/2010 | 653.3 |
FII were net buyer during the week to the tune of Rs 2052.6 crore.
Fundamental Picks of the Week:
Tata Chemical Target Rs 380
Orient Paper & Industries Target Rs 70
Piramal Glass Target Rs 155
KEY EVENTS DURING THE WEEK:
The central bank raised interest rates more forcefully than expected on Tuesday in the face of inflation that has held stubbornly above 10% for the past five months. The RBI raised the repo rate, at which it lends to banks, by 25 basis points to 5.75%, which was in line with expectations, but raised the reverse repo rate at which it absorbs excess cash from the system, by a steeper than expected 50 basis points to 4.50%.
Growth in key infrastructure sectors slowed to 3.4% in June. The six infrastructure industries saw its pace slowing down under the impact of a decline in output growth in cement, electricity and coal. Growth in coal and cement production dipped by 0.9% and 3.6%, respectively over 15.2% and 12.7% in June 09-10. Increase in electricity generation came down to 3.4% against 7.7%. Crude Oil and Petroleum refinery product grew by 6.8% and 2.9% in June compared to 4% and -3.8%, respectively.
Food Minister Sharad Pawar said that any decision on decontrolling the sugar sector will be taken only after assessing the likely production for the next year and keeping the interest of the consumers in mind.
India has slipped to the fifth position in terms of global steel production with a 32.50 mn tons output in the first six months of this year. In 2009, the country occupied the third rank in global steel production with 62.8 mn tons output whereas China topped the list with 567.8 mn tons.
India’s annual monsoon rains were 38% above normal in the week to 28th July.
The government laid down stringent security norms for imported telecom equipment, saying that telecom equipment vendors must allow inspection of their gears.
Sales of US new home rose in June more than forecast. Purchases increased 24% from May to annual pace of 3, 30,000.
Business investment in US picked up in the second quarter, June data on durable goods showed.
UK house prices fell by 0.5% in July on MoM basis. The fall is first time in five months.
Japan’s exports rose faster than economists estimated sustaining a boost to recovery that may diminish as global growth cools and the yen strengthens.
TECHNICALS:
S3 | S2 | S1 | NIFTY | R1 | R2 | R3 |
5300 | 5340 | 5360 | 5367 | 5420 | 5450 | 5470 |
Nifty has crucial resistance at 5420, if it is breached Nifty could taste the 52 week high and could move to 5450 level. Nifty again faces resistance at 5450-5470 level. On the other hand Nifty has very mild support at 5360 level which happens to short term 20 DMA and next good support comes at 5233 which is medium term 50 DMA.
14 Day RSI is at 52, which is very much neutral. Market could tilt either way. We have seen momentum waning.
RESULT THIS WEEK:
Day | Company |
Monday | Indian Cement |
| Gulf Oil |
| Gokaldas Export |
| Subros |
| NMDC |
| GAIL |
Tuesday | Uflex |
| Welspun India |
| Hindalco |
| Punj Lloyd |
Wednesday | Adani Power |
| Mundra Port |
Thursday | Aurobindo Phrama |
| Varun Shipping |
| Anant Raj |
Friday | RCF |
| Fortis Helathcare |
| NALCO |
| ICSA |
| Power Grid |
| Prakash Ind |
| Rain Commodities |
| ENIL |
CONCLUSION:
We expect Nifty to trade in range of 100-150 points with negative bias. Market has turned very unpredictable. The valuation at these levels is very much over stretched fundamentally so a cautious approach is required. We ask investors and traders with low risk appetite to wait for the direction.
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