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Investors Needn't Fear a Double-Dip Recession


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November 9

Investors Needn't Fear a Double-Dip Recession

By Jon D. Markman
Contributing Writer
Money Morning


A new report contains some very good news for investors: Double-dip recessions are very rare.

That means that a drop back into recessionary conditions looks less and less likely even as unemployment creeps higher and has crossed the 10% threshold for the first time in a quarter century.

After reviewing U.S. economic history all the way back to the 1850s, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) economists found that double-dip recessions are exceedingly rare: There have only been three episodes in which the economy has fallen back into recession within a year of a previous recession ending. And that's out of 33 recessions that have taken place since 1854.

Indeed, when these double-dip downturns do occur, they happen under circumstances...

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Commodities-Rich Australia Leads the West's Recovery

By Bob Blandeburgo
Associate Editor
Money Morning


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last month became the first Western economy to raise its key interest rate since the financial crisis began almost two years ago. It proceeded to raise the rate for a second time in a month last week, just before it published its quarterly report on Friday, which says bottlenecks obstructing exports of its vast resources such as iron ore and coal are about to be relieved. 

“Over the next two years, if capacity comes on line as planned, production of these bulk commodities could increase by around one third, with further significant increases possible over the remainder of the decade,” the RBA said.

As a result of this expected boom in the commodities sector, the RBA raised its forecast for growth of Australia's economy from 0.5% to 1.75%, and boosted its 2010 estimate a full percentage point to 3.25%.

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Buy, Sell or Hold: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Has Been Masterfully Managed and Will Continue to Benefit Investors

By Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning


Last year, on Aug 25, I recommended readers start buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) in incremental amounts until the end of 2008. 

I emphasized that Berkshire should be a core, long-term holding in investors' portfolios and not a stock to trade in and out off.   Today, the stock is about 11% above the price that it finished 2008 at. 

This recommendation was issued a mere three weeks before Lehman Brothers' Sept. 15 bankruptcy filing.  I knew at the time that there was a strong probability that Lehman would go bankrupt and that the market would tank, but I felt that the huge amount of cash on Berkshire's books would provide it with countless opportunities to pick up quality assets at bargain prices.

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What is 'the third element'?


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The Week Ahead
November 9
No major economic releases.
November 10
Federal Reserve officials, including the San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, to speak.
November 11 Retailer Macy's Inc. reports earnings.
November 12
Weekly initial jobless claims (11/07). Retailer Nordstrom Inc. and Walt Disney Co. report earnings.
November 13 An update on the trade balance and consumer sentiment. J.C. Penney Co. reports earnings.

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